How accurate were the #AE22 polls?

We’ve all heard the age-old adage that ‘the only poll that counts is the one on election day’ but since the first Gallup polls of the 1930s, political parties and commentators alike have kept a close eye on polling, albeit taking the results with a pinch of salt.

Whilst all the polls predicted the overall trend of 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election results, Lucid Talk’s poll for the Belfast Telegraph is generally considered to have been the most accurate and have stated that they forecasted the election to within 1.1%.

This poll called the SDLP’s result with a 0.4% margin but overestimated the performance of the UUP and the TUV.  

All the polls predicted a decrease in the DUP first preference vote and an uptake for Alliance, though this was ultimately overstated by most polls.

All three main polls had Sinn Féin at around a 7% lead and ultimately the party secured a 7.7% lead. Though perhaps the polls didn’t fully predict the wider Unionist vote persisting.

Polls provide a snapshot in time of how the public are feeling about a political party at any given moment.  With a time-delay between the poll being taken to the results being reported, we do have to remember there are a contingent of undecided voters who may only make up their minds in the last week before the election. 

Ultimately all pollsters underestimated the Sinn Féin and DUP vote, while overestimating the SDLP and Alliance vote.

Whilst not all polls are created equal, examining their outputs can provide an indication of general voting trends, which as party strategists know, is everything in the world of politics.